The race for Kia NBA Rookie of the Year, the prize unofficially tracked week by week here at the Kia Rookie Ladder, appears to be tighter than at any previous point this season.
In fact, much as the Ladder’s top two ring-holders flipped last week when Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel moved ahead of Dallas’ Cooper Flagg. In an update from Draft Kings SportsBook, Knueppel was the favorite, Flagg is now the underdog while Philadelphia’s VJ Edgecombe a distant third as a ROY candidate.
Flagg for much of the season has put up bigger counting stats than his former Duke teammate, with some explosive performances (49 points vs. Charlotte, 42 at Utah, 39 with nine boards and nine assists in a thrilling victory vs. Denver). However, Knueppel has kept pace by leading the NBA in 3-pointers, already breaking the rookie record from deep and flirting with shooting accuracy worthy of the vaunted 50/40/90 club.
In about six weeks, ROY voters will weigh all of their stats, along with intangibles and expectations met or missed. Then there are a couple other factors that could swing a potentially tight race.
One is durability. Flagg has played in 49 of Dallas’ 61 games thus far, missing the past seven with a foot sprain. Knueppel has shown up for 61 of the Hornets’ 62. That double-digit difference in appearances is how Knueppel has surpassed Flagg in total points, rebounds and assists despite Flagg’s slight edge on a per-game basis.
The second is winning. Charlotte is 31-31 after beating Dallas again Tuesday. Though, Knueppel has more than 2-0 bragging rights as the Hornets not only have won 10 more games than Dallas, they already have topped their total from last season (19). That’s the sort of improvement big-time rookies are expected to trigger.
The Mavericks, by comparison, are unlikely to approach last year’s 39 victories. Even though a rookie rarely gets blamed when his team takes a step back, it’s not a common look among ROY winners.
Of the last 25 Rookies of the Year, only three played on teams that won fewer games than they had the season before. Sixteen of the 25 helped their teams win at least 30 – the Mavericks are on pace to finish 28-54.
Nine winners played on teams that improved by 10 victories or more, with Knueppel’s club on track to add 22 with him on board. The only ROY guys in that ballpark, of the past 25, were Ben Simmons (+24), Chris Paul (+20) and LeBron James (+18).
Is winning the most important criteria for a first-year player? Probably not. But the draft is designed to deliver help to the neediest teams, and it’s not written anywhere that the help mustn’t show up in Year 1. Knueppel has more talented teammates, but his shooting range, floor IQ and fundamentals have unlocked something exciting in Charlotte.
Flagg has the heavier lift, stepping into the void from Luka Dončić’s departure last season to carry the injury-riddled Mavericks. His individual game at both ends is flashier than his former Blue Devils roommate’s. But in a league that values efficiency and has never been very patient with losing, Knueppel’s instant impact for a new playoff aspirant might be enough to claim the award.
Here are this week’s Ladder rankings:
Weekly recap
- San Antonio guard Dylan Harper crashed the party, becoming the first rookie other than Knueppel or Flagg to win a Rookie of the Month Award for his work in February. Harper’s case in the West got made less by his individual numbers (12.5 ppg, 4.9 apg, 55.4% shooting) and more by the Spurs’ 11-0 perfection in February. Knueppel won again in the East as the Hornets went 8-3, taking a 4-3 lead over Flagg in the monthly honors this season.
- Good things come to those who wait, Dallas rookie point guard Ryan Nembhard learned over the weekend when the Mavericks converted his two-way contract into a standard two-year NBA deal. Undrafted out of Gonzaga last June, the brother of Indiana’s Andrew Nembhard has helped the Mavs with 6.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg and 4.9 apg while hitting 37.4% of his 3-point attempts.
- Hugo González, Boston’s first-year spark plug, had his biggest night yet at Milwaukee Monday, scoring 18 points, grabbing 16 rebounds and surviving his defensive mismatch vs. Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. “With those types of players, you can’t really guard them by one person,” González said. “You got to take the matchup as a team.” González leads all rookies in plus/minus by a wide margin (plus-283).
- Memphis’ Walter Clayton Jr. didn’t just set a personal best when he passed for 14 assists Sunday against Indiana. He grabbed the rookie high from Nembhard (13) and he tied the Grizzlies’ franchise mark for most by a rookie. Ja Morant dished 14 assists twice in the 2019-20 season.
Storyline to watch
Head-to-head scarcity. With Flagg sitting out Tuesday, our opportunities to see elite matchups of the Ladder’s top rookies are dwindling. Knuppel’s Hornets play at Dylan Harper’s gym on March 14. Flagg has potential showdowns with Derik Queen in New Orleans March 16 and with Harper in San Antonio April 10. And Edgecombe gets a game against Knueppel March 28 and against Harper April 6.